Geopolitical Recommendations: Defeating Iran

Before leaving the blogosphere, I'd like to offer predictions and recommendations concerning some highly pressing geopolitical issues. Analyzing and forecasting global affairs can be notoriously difficult (we all remember huge whiffs like The Population Bomb), but I believe that certain trends point in very particular directions, and would like to address them here.


Iran
First and most immediately, the civilized world must quickly act to defeat the Mullahcratic regime in Iran. History has shown that when dictators threaten war and genocide, they certainly mean it, and Ahmadinejad clearly is no exception. And lest Americans think the tyrant of Tehran is only Israel's problem, he actually despises and wants to destroy the United States just as much, if not more.

So what can be done? Halting Iran's nuclear program is not enough; the regime must be quickly overthrown or militarily defeated. Unlike many prominent columnists, I don't believe Ahmadinejad intends to use nukes the moment he can. Yes, he certainly aims to "wipe Israel off the map", and yes, he wants to create worldwide destruction to bring back Shia Islam's twelfth imam. But although his rants may sound delusional to Western ears, he is actually very rational, and while he may certainly be willing to lose half the Iranian populace in a counterattack just to destroy Israel, this doesn't mean he'd prefer to. Surely he would rather conquer Israel (and then the rest of the Middle East and beyond) without suffering large losses. Not, of course, that Ahmadinejad cares about the Iranian people as individuals, but as a Shiite leader surrounded and outnumbered by Sunni neighbors, he can't expect to lead the world's Muslims with most of his denomination wiped out by Israel's response.

As a result, I strongly feel that Iran intends to launch not a nuclear bomb, but rather a conventional military assault against Israel, using the nuclear threat primarily to deter the Jewish state's own presumed atomic arsenal. Ahmadinejad clearly believes he can win such a war, particularly if he involves Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas in an all-sides attack.

It is not enough, then, for Israel and/or America to simply halt Iran's nuclear development. Doing so, of course, is still paramount (Ahmadinejad may be rational, but he's also extremely overconfident and could easily panic with his regime in danger), but the entire Mullahcratic government must be defeated as well. With or without nuclear weapons, Iran plans to attack Israel, and this threat, in addition to the nuclear program (which of course still makes things far more dangerous), must also immediately be countered.

So how can Israel do it? Act now to overwhelmingly defeat Iran's terrorist proxies in Syria, Lebanon, Judea/Samaria, and Gaza. Quickly doing so will not change Ahmadinejad's evil ambitions, but it should erode his confidence enough that he'll think twice before using Iran's own soldiers. Feeling hemmed in without yet having nukes (if Israel acts in time), he'll likely crack down even harder on internal dissent as most dictators do in such situations. At this point, Israel can, under the cover of its own military power, help the Iranian people, who already hate the regime, to overthrow it similar to the Eastern European anti-Communist revolts of 1989-1990.

A tall order? Of course. But the alternative of letting Iran attack first is far far worse.

To be continued on other topics shortly...
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Update: Joshua Muravchik of the American Enterprise Institute offers a different strategy: immediately bombing Iran's nuclear facilities. As outlined above, I don't believe this is fully sufficient; the regime must also fall. But Mr. Muravchik's piece is an interesting counterpoint view. Victor Davis Hanson, meanwhile, believes Ahmadinejad is actually much weaker than advertised. I agree. And Aish.com's Sara Yocheved Rigler tells what the Jewish response to the situation should be. Just read it.