Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Defeating Iran No Matter What Ahmadinejad Thinks

August 22 has come and gone (well, it's still the 22nd here, but already the 23rd in the Middle East), and much of the Western world appears to be sighing in relief. Many promiment Iran watchers had speculated that the Mullahs, in response to a UN offer of incentives for ending its nuclear program, intended to cataclysmically attack the West to coincide with a Muslim holy day. But instead Ahmadinejad merely stalled for more time. (I can't fully verify this news since it's from China's state-run Xinhua outlet, but even a Communist mouthpiece is probably more accurate than al-Reuters these days.)

Iran's hesitation is welcome news, but by no means does it diminish Tehran's nuclear threat. Ahamdinejad clearly still intends to develop the weapons and has continued his evil genocidal threats against Israel.

But I'm beginning to wonder, contrary to popular opinion, just whether Ahmadinejad is as undeterrable as believed. Yes, he's still a jihadist fanatic, happy to kill millions of his own people to bring back the 12th century Mahdi. But is he willing to sacrifice himself or his family? I'm not so sure.

Plenty of terrorist groups spout self-sacrificial rhetoric, and indeed often follow through by dispatching suicide bombers. But do the terror leaders ever volunteer for such missions, or send their own children? No, virtually never. Rather, they maintain power and force others to do the dirty work. The leaders never admit it, but they value their own lives much more highly than they let on. Chances are, Iran's prime minister feels this way too.

This insight, assuming it's accurate, reminds us that we still retain the full opportunity to defeat Iran. Like his mentor Hitler, Ahmadinejad may sacrifice himself if cornered. But as long as he maintains his confidence in Iran's ultimate aims, he likely wants to live and won't risk an attack bold enough to provoke an American response until he feels sufficiently strong to counter it. This should occur only if he develops nuclear armaments.

Therefore, Western powers must destroy Iran's nuclear program immediately. The Mullahs are determined to ignore the UN Security Council, brush aside sanctions, and partner with Russia and China in order to complete its weaponry. Diplomacy has already failed, and we must take action before it's too late. Any negative consequences from doing so (i.e. France and Saudi Arabia giving us lectures on "proper morality") are peanuts compared to the problems we'll face if we let Iran continue.

Iran's nuclear feet-dragging has granted the Western world a "Get Out Of Jail Free" card. Now we must take advantage and use it.

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