Dear all,
After the past year and a half of writing on this site, I have decided to leave the blogosphere. I know this announcement is entirely out of the blue, but I have actually been considering it for quite some time. Certainly, it has not been an easy decision, as I have greatly enjoyed blogging and feel privileged to have met so many friends, readers, and fellow bloggers online.
However, I am about to assume some major lifestyle changes (impending fatherhood and newly increased career responsibilities), and after much thought and family discussion, have chosen to hang up the spikes. Running this website has been a true joy and passion, and I had hoped to continue it indefinitely, but unfortunately this option does not appear realistic.
As a result, I intend to wrap things up shortly. There is much backlogged content that I'd like to post before leaving, but expect the blog to wind down in the near future. The site itself will remain online for the time being, although that may change at some point because Typepad (our web host) is a paid service. I would like to preserve the site's content, though, and am working on several options, including creating an archival site through a free hosting service such as Blogger. (More info on this to come.)
I also don't plan to leave the online space entirely; time permitting, I certainly hope to still comment and write letters on other blogs and sites, as well as offer the occasional freelance piece. And please stay tuned for all the wrap-up material on this site. But in the meantime, thank you all very much. It has been a real pleasure running TheSolidSurfer.com, and I certainly will miss it.
-Solid Surfer
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
Monday, November 27, 2006
Western Writers and Muslim Demographics Part II
Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving holiday. I had planned to move beyond the topic of the previous post, but instead feel compelled to return to it by a new Mark Steyn doom-and-gloom piece.
In the latest of his Western demographic disaster articles, Steyn compares Palestinian and Episcopalian birthrates to once again advance his thesis of high-fertility Muslim immigrants taking over low-fertility Europe. Furthermore, he writes a rejoinder to a strong opposing piece by columnist Ralph Peters, who feels that Europe will soon awaken and expel the Muslims.
So who is correct? I'm still undecided on Peters (although I do have some thoughts in the comments section of a post on Israpundit covering the debate). But as usual, Steyn's demographic analyses are largely off the mark. Similar to with his previous Europe-is-a-goner conclusions (debunked here and here), he simply ignores significant factual data.
In his current article, Steyn is absolutely correct that Europe has low fertility. What he doesn't mention, though, is that most Muslims today also have low fertility, and the Muslims still at high rates are dropping rapidly. Steyn cites a Palestinian grandmother with nine children and 41 grandchildren as a high-birthrate Muslim example. But really, her fertility is irrelevant. You see, her childbirths already occurred in the past; the real number to be concerned with is not her fertility, but the fertility of those grandchildren who are *currently* of reproductive age. And on average, this generation is having not nine children, but only one or two each. This is right in line with European fertility levels, and does not at all lead to the type of demographic takeover that Steyn envisions.
Mark Steyn is a fine writer in many other regards, but his demographic projections simply don't gel with statistical reality. And given the disastrous policies that can proceed from faulty demographic knowledge (i.e. Ehud Olmert's continuous call for Israel to withdraw from settlements), I believe it is strongly necessary to correct such misunderstandings.
In the latest of his Western demographic disaster articles, Steyn compares Palestinian and Episcopalian birthrates to once again advance his thesis of high-fertility Muslim immigrants taking over low-fertility Europe. Furthermore, he writes a rejoinder to a strong opposing piece by columnist Ralph Peters, who feels that Europe will soon awaken and expel the Muslims.
So who is correct? I'm still undecided on Peters (although I do have some thoughts in the comments section of a post on Israpundit covering the debate). But as usual, Steyn's demographic analyses are largely off the mark. Similar to with his previous Europe-is-a-goner conclusions (debunked here and here), he simply ignores significant factual data.
In his current article, Steyn is absolutely correct that Europe has low fertility. What he doesn't mention, though, is that most Muslims today also have low fertility, and the Muslims still at high rates are dropping rapidly. Steyn cites a Palestinian grandmother with nine children and 41 grandchildren as a high-birthrate Muslim example. But really, her fertility is irrelevant. You see, her childbirths already occurred in the past; the real number to be concerned with is not her fertility, but the fertility of those grandchildren who are *currently* of reproductive age. And on average, this generation is having not nine children, but only one or two each. This is right in line with European fertility levels, and does not at all lead to the type of demographic takeover that Steyn envisions.
Mark Steyn is a fine writer in many other regards, but his demographic projections simply don't gel with statistical reality. And given the disastrous policies that can proceed from faulty demographic knowledge (i.e. Ehud Olmert's continuous call for Israel to withdraw from settlements), I believe it is strongly necessary to correct such misunderstandings.
Wednesday, November 22, 2006
Western Writers and Muslim Demographic Exaggeration
Before reading this post:
If you haven't done so already, please visit the previous post to see how you can help save the life of Bangladeshi journalist Salah Uddin Shoaib Choudhury, who has been arrested for speaking out against fundamentalist Islam and supporting Israel, America, and other religious faiths. It's a real must, and takes only a moment.
And now, onto the main content:
In the recent past, many Muslim communities in non-Muslim countries have exaggerated their demographic numbers, often wildly, for political gain. Among other places, they have done so in America, in France, and in Israel. Certain Western writers, meanwhile, particularly Mark Steyn, have taken these numbers at face value, and have scared the daylights out of Westerners by projecting a population-based Islamic takeover of the world. In reality, however, statistics that Steyn excludes from his analysis largely debunk his thesis (as I have demonstrated here and here), and the Muslim threat to the West, while clearly real, is far from the certainty he claims.
Lest such journalistic predictions remain a Western phenomenon, however, a researcher in Estonia named Paul Goble now claims a similar situation for Russia. According to Goble, current Russian population trends indicate that by mid-century, over half of that country's citizenry will be Muslim. Worrisome? Of course. But true? Almost certainly not.
Goble bases his projection on three apparent indicators - low Russian fertility, high Muslim fertility, and Muslim immigration from other Soviet republics. Taken at face value, the combination of these indeed points to a Muslim population takeover.
Thing is, however, only one of these indicators is actually correct. Russians indeed have few children (about 1.3 per woman), but the Muslim numbers are enormously exaggerated.
Goble claims that the primary Muslim groups in Russia, the Chechens and Ingush, average ten children per woman, while the Tatars (at least those living in Moscow) average six. He also states, meanwhile, that several hundred thousand Muslim immigrants arrive each year from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan.
Now I don't know where Goble found this ten-children number, but rest assured, it is most certainly false. It is difficult to find exact fertility numbers for ethnic/religious populations within Russia, but the state of Chechnya itself claims a crude birthrate of 24.9 per 1000 women, which translates to a fertility rate of about three children per woman. This number may or may not be accurate for all Muslims in Russia, but for comparison, we must note that not a single nation on Earth averages close to the ten-children mark. (The highest-fertility groups worldwide -- certain African tribes, desert Bedouins, and Hasidic Jews -- max out at about seven.) The world fertility average is 2.5, and the Muslim nations bordering the parts of Russia where the Chechens, Ingush, and Tatars reside range from 1.8 (Iran) to 1.92 (Turkey) to 2.46 (Azerbaijan). Most likely, the overall Russian Muslim rate lies somewhere within this span, and whatever it is, it's not remotely close to ten (or even six).
Of course, a fertility rate between 2 and 3 is much higher than the ethnic Russians' 1.3, but there are also about 130 million ethnic Russians and perhaps only 15 million ethnic Muslims. At current rates, it will take Muslims almost two centuries to catch up. Furthermore, if rates (and/or the political situation) change, something that's virtually guaranteed to occur to some degree, they will likely favor the Russians, as their birthrates probably can't sink much lower and have actually slightly risen over the past few years.
At the same time, meanwhile, Goble's other Muslim source, immigration numbers, is also likely misrepresented. Many migrants have indeed moved to Russia from surrounding nations, but their religion has not formally been tracked, and chances are, a large portion are actually returning ethnic Russians.
For all his assumptions, Goble does attempt to support his claim with some genuine hard evidence, such as increased mosque construction and Islamic religious practice over the last twenty years. But these too can be explained. In Soviet times (i.e. before 1989), religion was almost entirely suppressed. Today it is not. The mosque construction and religious practice, hence, reflects not necessarily an absolute population rise, but a return to observance by a portion of the already existing population. Very similarly, many more churches and Christian worshippers (and synagogues and Jewish worshippers) exist compared to 1989, even though the absolute numbers of ethnic Russian Christians and Jews have not increased.
Whatever his motivations, Paul Goble follows Mark Steyn in using exaggerated Muslim numbers to predict the downfall of other nations. This threat, however, does not stand to genuine statistical scrutiny. The fundamentalist Muslim threat to the free world, once again, is very real. But non-Muslim nations should be much more optimistic about their relative demographic situations than much of the media has led us to believe.
If you haven't done so already, please visit the previous post to see how you can help save the life of Bangladeshi journalist Salah Uddin Shoaib Choudhury, who has been arrested for speaking out against fundamentalist Islam and supporting Israel, America, and other religious faiths. It's a real must, and takes only a moment.
And now, onto the main content:
In the recent past, many Muslim communities in non-Muslim countries have exaggerated their demographic numbers, often wildly, for political gain. Among other places, they have done so in America, in France, and in Israel. Certain Western writers, meanwhile, particularly Mark Steyn, have taken these numbers at face value, and have scared the daylights out of Westerners by projecting a population-based Islamic takeover of the world. In reality, however, statistics that Steyn excludes from his analysis largely debunk his thesis (as I have demonstrated here and here), and the Muslim threat to the West, while clearly real, is far from the certainty he claims.
Lest such journalistic predictions remain a Western phenomenon, however, a researcher in Estonia named Paul Goble now claims a similar situation for Russia. According to Goble, current Russian population trends indicate that by mid-century, over half of that country's citizenry will be Muslim. Worrisome? Of course. But true? Almost certainly not.
Goble bases his projection on three apparent indicators - low Russian fertility, high Muslim fertility, and Muslim immigration from other Soviet republics. Taken at face value, the combination of these indeed points to a Muslim population takeover.
Thing is, however, only one of these indicators is actually correct. Russians indeed have few children (about 1.3 per woman), but the Muslim numbers are enormously exaggerated.
Goble claims that the primary Muslim groups in Russia, the Chechens and Ingush, average ten children per woman, while the Tatars (at least those living in Moscow) average six. He also states, meanwhile, that several hundred thousand Muslim immigrants arrive each year from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan.
Now I don't know where Goble found this ten-children number, but rest assured, it is most certainly false. It is difficult to find exact fertility numbers for ethnic/religious populations within Russia, but the state of Chechnya itself claims a crude birthrate of 24.9 per 1000 women, which translates to a fertility rate of about three children per woman. This number may or may not be accurate for all Muslims in Russia, but for comparison, we must note that not a single nation on Earth averages close to the ten-children mark. (The highest-fertility groups worldwide -- certain African tribes, desert Bedouins, and Hasidic Jews -- max out at about seven.) The world fertility average is 2.5, and the Muslim nations bordering the parts of Russia where the Chechens, Ingush, and Tatars reside range from 1.8 (Iran) to 1.92 (Turkey) to 2.46 (Azerbaijan). Most likely, the overall Russian Muslim rate lies somewhere within this span, and whatever it is, it's not remotely close to ten (or even six).
Of course, a fertility rate between 2 and 3 is much higher than the ethnic Russians' 1.3, but there are also about 130 million ethnic Russians and perhaps only 15 million ethnic Muslims. At current rates, it will take Muslims almost two centuries to catch up. Furthermore, if rates (and/or the political situation) change, something that's virtually guaranteed to occur to some degree, they will likely favor the Russians, as their birthrates probably can't sink much lower and have actually slightly risen over the past few years.
At the same time, meanwhile, Goble's other Muslim source, immigration numbers, is also likely misrepresented. Many migrants have indeed moved to Russia from surrounding nations, but their religion has not formally been tracked, and chances are, a large portion are actually returning ethnic Russians.
For all his assumptions, Goble does attempt to support his claim with some genuine hard evidence, such as increased mosque construction and Islamic religious practice over the last twenty years. But these too can be explained. In Soviet times (i.e. before 1989), religion was almost entirely suppressed. Today it is not. The mosque construction and religious practice, hence, reflects not necessarily an absolute population rise, but a return to observance by a portion of the already existing population. Very similarly, many more churches and Christian worshippers (and synagogues and Jewish worshippers) exist compared to 1989, even though the absolute numbers of ethnic Russian Christians and Jews have not increased.
Whatever his motivations, Paul Goble follows Mark Steyn in using exaggerated Muslim numbers to predict the downfall of other nations. This threat, however, does not stand to genuine statistical scrutiny. The fundamentalist Muslim threat to the free world, once again, is very real. But non-Muslim nations should be much more optimistic about their relative demographic situations than much of the media has led us to believe.
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
Help Save Bangladeshi Journalist Salah Uddin Shoaib Choudhury - Friend of Israel and America
Tons to catch up on...where can we even start? There has been plenty of important news from the past week, but first and foremost, we can help save a life.
Anyone here heard of a Bangladeshi journalist named Salah Uddin Shoaib Choudhury? Mr. Choudhury has been arrested by the Bangladeshi government on charges of sedition, treason, and blasphemy, having committed the "crime" of speaking out against fundamentalist Islam and advocating peaceful relations with Jews and Christians. His trial is set for January 2007 under an Islamist judge who intends to apply capital punishment.
As outrageous as this is, however, American pressure can almost certainly convince the Bangladeshi government to dismiss the charges. Such a threat has previously convinced Bangladesh on other matters, and their economy is largely dependent on American garment purchases. To help Mr. Choudhury, read this article and visit this website.
It will take only a minute or two of your time, and you can help save a person's life. As the linked article says, "Salah Uddin Shoaib Choudhury has stood up for us at considerable peril; now it is up to us to stand up for him." Let's do it.
-TheSolidSurfer.com
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Update - a reader writes:
"I would like people to know that a bipartisan resolution has been introduced in the House of Representatives in support of Mr. Choudhury. It calls upon the government of Bangladesh to drop all charges against him, return his confiscated property and prosecute the individuals who attacked him. Please ask your readers to call their representatives in Congress and ask them to support House Resolution #1080. This is an urgent matter, since Congress will adjourn in another week or two at the most, and it is important that the resolution pass with a huge majority before that. The European Parliament passed a resolution in support of Mr. Choudhury last week. It's our turn."
Well, there you have it - let's call our Congressional representatives. If you don't have their contact information, you can also reach them via email through the American Jewish Committee's website (and don't worry - it's pre-formatted so you don't have to compose anything original if you don't want). Here is the direct link.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Further Update: David Harris, executive director of the American Jewish Committee, has penned an essential article on Mr. Choudhury's situation.
Anyone here heard of a Bangladeshi journalist named Salah Uddin Shoaib Choudhury? Mr. Choudhury has been arrested by the Bangladeshi government on charges of sedition, treason, and blasphemy, having committed the "crime" of speaking out against fundamentalist Islam and advocating peaceful relations with Jews and Christians. His trial is set for January 2007 under an Islamist judge who intends to apply capital punishment.
As outrageous as this is, however, American pressure can almost certainly convince the Bangladeshi government to dismiss the charges. Such a threat has previously convinced Bangladesh on other matters, and their economy is largely dependent on American garment purchases. To help Mr. Choudhury, read this article and visit this website.
It will take only a minute or two of your time, and you can help save a person's life. As the linked article says, "Salah Uddin Shoaib Choudhury has stood up for us at considerable peril; now it is up to us to stand up for him." Let's do it.
-TheSolidSurfer.com
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Update - a reader writes:
"I would like people to know that a bipartisan resolution has been introduced in the House of Representatives in support of Mr. Choudhury. It calls upon the government of Bangladesh to drop all charges against him, return his confiscated property and prosecute the individuals who attacked him. Please ask your readers to call their representatives in Congress and ask them to support House Resolution #1080. This is an urgent matter, since Congress will adjourn in another week or two at the most, and it is important that the resolution pass with a huge majority before that. The European Parliament passed a resolution in support of Mr. Choudhury last week. It's our turn."
Well, there you have it - let's call our Congressional representatives. If you don't have their contact information, you can also reach them via email through the American Jewish Committee's website (and don't worry - it's pre-formatted so you don't have to compose anything original if you don't want). Here is the direct link.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Further Update: David Harris, executive director of the American Jewish Committee, has penned an essential article on Mr. Choudhury's situation.
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