Israel's Demographic Non-Crisis

With all the recent hoopla over Muslim vs. Western demographics in Europe, public discussion of a similar situation in Israel has been pushed slightly to the backburner. But within Israel itself, this issue has continued to dominate the political landscape, as successive leaders from Barak to Sharon and now Olmert have based key foreign policy decisions on the premise that Palestinian population growth rates far outstrip Jewish increases.

According to Palestinian Authority-provided statistics, 3.8 million Arabs live in the West Bank and Gaza. Add in Israel's 1.4 million Arab citizens, and it appears that 5.2 million Arabs live west of the Jordan River, as compared with only 5.3 million Jews. Factoring in the Arabs' higher natural growth rates, an Arab majority in the region would seem almost certain to occur within a few years.

Believing these numbers, Israel's government has postulated that a long-term Jewish majority can be achieved only by ceding Gaza and most of the West Bank to the Palestinians. And thus Sharon withdrew from Gaza, and now Olmert intends to destroy Jewish settlements throughout Judea and Samaria.

But what if the numbers are actually wrong? In early 2005, an Israeli demographic study found that the Palestinians had far inflated their population count and growth rates, and that the actual number of Arabs in the disputed territories is only 2.4 million. Furthermore, so many Palestinians are emigrating from the territories in the wake of the intifada that Israel's share of the overall population may even increase. Going by this study, Israel has no demographic problem at all.

Both sides claim to be right; Israel stands by its numbers while the Palestinians stand by theirs. So who is telling the truth?

Until recently, it may have been difficult for an outside observer to know. But now that Palestinian election returns have come in, we have a definitive answer: Israel.

According to official polling station counts, there were 1.3 million eligible Palestinian voters, a number that corresponds only with Israel's findings of 2.4 million Palestinians. (Here is a thorough analysis of why.)

Just as the Palestinian leadership has always lied about its intentions and its true goal of destroying Israel, we see once again that they have spread deliberate falsehoods in order to advance their political cause. By emphasizing a phony demographic threat, they conned Israel into withdrawing from Gaza and threaten to do the same for most of the West Bank.

We must spread the truth before it is too late. Ceding land to terrorists is a terrible idea, and Israel must not fall into such a trap again.