Canada, Iran, Jonathan Pollard, and Spengler

Polls indicate a Conservative Party win in Canada. After 13 years of Liberal Party rule, it appears our northern neighbor's pendulum finally has swung in the other direction. President Bush certainly must be pleased, as Conservative Party leader (and prime minister front-runner) Stephen Harper has pledged to work more closely with the U.S. if elected.

Meanwhile, the pseudonymous "Spengler" of the Asia Times has written an insightful column on why Western nations are all but certain to attack Iran. Of course, the Islamic republic's pursuit of nuclear weapons is the main reason, but Spengler also explains it from an energy perspective. Thanks to shoddy refining infrastructure and rising internal energy demands, Iran is projected to run out of oil to export in less than 20 years. The Mullahs hence need access to their neighbors' reserves, and desire a nuclear arsenal to back themselves on the quest. The West can't let Iran control the surrounding nations (including Iraq and Saudi Arabia) and hold the world hostage to its oil output, so the only choice (barring the unlikely event that Ahmadinejad backs down) is to attack.

I don't think Spengler's analysis quite covers everything - his explanation makes plenty of sense and leans on solid facts, but he passes over Ahmadinejad's openly megalomaniacal tendencies. Not that I doubt nukes will help Iran control its neighbors' oil, but when the country's president denies the Holocaust and declares his desire to "wipe Israel off the map," you have to worry about much more sinister intentions. Nonetheless, my conclusion and Spengler's are the same: America and/or Israel will not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons.

Spengler, by the way, has quite a fascinating archive of essays primarily on geopolitics. Not sure why he writes anonymously given the Asia Times's large readership (the secret identity is plenty eye catching - perhaps it's a marketing hook), but he (or she) always seems to have a phenomenally unique take on his chosen issues, quite similar to Malcolm Gladwell on social and business topics. I seriously doubt Gladwell actually is Spengler, but one thing is for certain - whether you agree with his views or not, the fellow certainly writes some interesting columns.

In other news:

Larry Franklin, the former Pentagon analyst convicted of passing classified information to two AIPAC officials regarding Israel, was sentenced last week to 12 years in prison. And now it's time for the AIPAC staffers themselves, Steve Rosen and Keith Weissman, to stand trial.

Are they also guilty? Rosen and Weissman claim they did not know the information's classified status; if this is indeed the case, they should certainly be exonerated. We'll have to see what happens in court.

Franklin's sentence, meanwhile, also brings to mind the utter injustice of the Jonathan Pollard case. Pollard, as many know, was convicted in 1985 of spying for Israel, and has remained in prison on a life sentence. Yes, Pollard committed a crime (spying for an ally), but his sentence has been far disproportional to the offense. Offenders of the same act have received, on average, two- to four-year sentences, and Pollard is the only one to have received life imprisonment. He should have been released long ago. Visit http://www.jonathanpollard.org/ to see how you can help.