Many of us in the West desperately have been trying to decipher Iran's military/nuclear strategy. Just what are Ahmedinajed and the Mullahs trying to accomplish by announcing their nuclear intentions to the world?
Are they trying to develop a nuclear blackmail option, a la North Korea, so to consolidate their hold on power? Are they attempting a brilliant diplomatic strategy aimed at expanding their influence in the Middle East? Or are they truly insane, trying to goad Israel or America into a nuclear face off?
All these scenarios sound plausible on paper, but I'm not sure I agree with any of them. The first two possibilities would clearly befit a rational decision maker, but Iran's leaders are far from rational. No, they're not crazy either, but like many power-hungry autocrats, they possess a reckless megalomania to the point of delusion. Just listen, for example, to the way Ahmadinejad speaks. Addressing the U.N. in September, he believed a light surrounded him as though he carried a divine message.
This leads me towards only one conclusion: Iran's leaders are so confident in their mission and abilities that they sincerely believe they can conquer the West. They don't care what we know or think of their plans (and if anything, they'll brag about it); they see the result as inevitable, and nothing else matters.
Yes, they are entirely deluded from reality, but that is exactly the danger. The Mullahs believe so strongly in their ultimate victory that, in all likelihood, they could care less about being counterattacked. If they develop nuclear weapons, they most certainly plan to use them because they sincerely believe they'll win through such an attack.
Iran's nuclear program must be stopped immediately, before it's too late. Visit the Iran Freedom Foundation for ways to help.
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Comment 1/21/06
I certainly hope the situation can be resolved without a military conflict, although I'll have to admit I'm doubtful that'll be the case.
The Mullahs probably won't back down, no matter the negotiations, sanctions, or anything. But there's also great opposition to them within the country, and their government is in danger of falling at anytime. That, as I see it, would be the best case scenario, and perhaps only a small push by the U.S. is needed to make it happen.
Just in the last year, this approach worked in Ukraine, Georgia (the former Soviet state), and Lebanon, so it's definitely a possibility in Iran. But we need it to happen ASAP.
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